Corona virus (Covid 19) is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases, it appeared for the first time in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Shortly thereafter, the disease spread to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on the second of March with a citizen coming from abroad. Most of the world's governments have taken a number of strategies to counter the pandemic, such as travel restrictions, avoiding public gatherings and social distancing. The researchers have also conducted experimental research and developed statistical models to predict the spread of Covid 19. this study aimsthe main objective of this study is to expect the number of confirmed cases of covid 19 in KSA by using statistical models.
Methodology
The researchers have also conducted experimental research and developed statistical models to predict the spread of Covid 19.
Results
In this study, we aims to expect the number of cases/prevalence , recovered and death cases of covid 19 in KSA by using statistical models. In this study, time series model will be used. we will start the study by applying ARIMA (P,D,Q).one drawback of ARIMA is the difficulty to treat the sudden jump or drop down of daily cases. Therefore, we will use Kalman filter model to avoid this drawback. Finally, we will apply Validation method to choose the appropriate model.
Conclusion
This study indicates that the spread of the disease is in the end of its period due to vaccination activities. Based on the results, the study recommends continuing with the current precautionary measures and continue to intensify awareness of covid 19 and push the people to take the discovered vaccination. Moreover, healthcare system benefit from the results of the models in following health measures that limit covid 19 spread.