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Analysis and Forecast of Road Traffic Accident in Saudi Arabia from 1990 until 2018


Road traffic accidents (RTAs) are an epidemic problem in Saudi Arabia, resulting in high morbidity and mortality rates. The main objective of this paper was to investigate the increasing number of RTAs, related injuries, and mortalities in Saudi Arabia.


This study used the population data of Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2018 from the General Authority for Statistics. Correlation among variables (RTAs, injuries, mortalities, and population) was analyzed using SPSS. Linear regression was also used to estimate the trends over the next ten years.


Eastern, Makkah, and Riyadh regions were the top three regions in terms of RTAs accounting for 69% of the total RTAs. Makkah posed the highest injury rate per 10,000 RTA although it had the lowest RTA rate per 100,000 population between 2010 and 2014. The mortality rate in Riyadh had doubled in the following years after 2014. Yet, Makkah accounted for the highest mortality rate due to RTAs. The correlation between RTAs and mortalities was the highest in the country thus, higher than the correlation between population and RTAs; and RTAs and related injuries (r=0.92). In 2030, the average annual increase in the rate of RTAs, related injuries; and related mortalities will be 3%, 2%, and 2.1%, respectively.


Decision makers in Saudi traffic and transportation department should continue monitoring accidents prevention strategies and their effect. Reasons behind high injury and mortality rates, despite the decrease in the rate of RTAs, should be investigated.